Technical analysis

Technical analysis

16 May 2022
  • 19:56

    NZD/USD is trading near a 2-year low

    Today, the NZD/USD pair is trading in the range of $0.6230-95 after reaching a new 2-year low ($0.6215) last week. On the hourly chart, the pair dropped below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($0.6345) and on the four-hour chart it remained below MA (200) H4 ($0.6645). Technically speaking, the support of $0.6215 can keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $0.6380 represents the resistance level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is below the level of 30, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    Resistance levels are: $0.6300, $0.6380, $0.6460

    Support levels are: $0.6215,  $0.6150-65, $0.6080


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — support breakout is $0.6215 (May 12 low) and there may be a decline to $0.6150-65 (May 27-29’ 2020 lows)

    An alternative scenario — the resistance breakout is $0.6300 (May 12 high) and there may be an increase to $0.6380 (May 11 high)


  • 19:41

    USD/JPY remains below MA (200) H1

     

    Today, the USD/JPY pair is trading in the range of Y128.70-129.65 after reaching a 2-week low of Y127.55 last week. Recall that a week ago the pair reached a new 20-year high (Y131.35). On the hourly chart, USD/JPY remains below the moving average line of MA (200) H1 (Y129.85), but on the four-hour chart it is trading above MA (200) H4 (Y127.25). Technically speaking, the support of Y127.50 can keep prices down. The upper bound of Y131.35 represents the resistance level.

     

    Resistance levels are:  Y129.85, Y130.80, Y131.35

    Support levels are:  Y128.65, Y127.55, Y126.95


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — the breakout of the MA (200) H1 (Y129.85) level may be the growth of the pair to Y130.80 (May 11 high)


    An alternative scenario — support breakout is Y128.65 (May 4 low) and there may be a decline to Y127.55 (May 12 low)

  • 19:27

    USD/CHF is trading near a 3-year high

    Today, the USD/CHF pair is trading mainly with an increase from Chf1.0015 to Chf1.0060, reaching a new 3-year high. On the hourly chart, the pair remains above the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Chf0.9915) and on the four-hour chart - above MA (200) H4 (Chf0.9575). In this situation, the scenario of further growth of the USD/CHF pair is likely. Finding a buy position can be a wise decision for those who want to take advantage of a stronger US dollar.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is above the level of 70, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.



    Resistance levels are: Chf1.0060, Chf1.0095, Chf1.0120


    Support levels are: Chf0.9990, Chf0.9915-30, Chf0.9870


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — breakout of the session maximum of Chf1.0060 and there may be an increase to Chf1.0095 (May 28 and 30’ 2019 high)

    An alternative scenario — support breakout of Chf0.9990 (May 13 low) and there may be a decline to Chf0.9915-30 (May 12 low, MA (200) H1)

  • 19:22

    GBP/USD is trading near a 2-year low

    Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading in the range of $1.2215-1.2300 after reaching a 2-year low ($1.2155) last week. On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has consolidated below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($1.2330) and on the four-hour chart remains below MA (200) H4 ($1.2770). Technically speaking, the support of $1.2155 may keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $1.2405 represents the resistance level.


    ⦁ Resistance levels are: $1.2300-30, $1.2405, $1.2640

    ⦁ Support levels are: $1.2155, $1.2080, $1.1975



    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — the support breakthrough is $1.2155 (May 13 low) and there may be a decline to $1.2080 (May 20’ 2020 low)


    An alternative scenario — breakout of the session high of $1.2300 and MA (200) H1 ($1.2330) and there may be an increase to $1.2405 (May 9 and 11 high)

  • 19:02

    EUR/USD remains below MA (200) H1

    Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading mainly with an increase in the range of $1.0390-1.0435 after reaching the lowest value since the beginning of January 2017 last week ($1.0350). The pair broke through the support of $1.0470, which became the nearest resistance. On the hourly chart, EUR/USD remains below the moving average line of MA (200) H1 ($1.0510) and on the four-hour chart - significantly below MA (200) H4 ($1.0730). Technically speaking, the support of $1.0340-50 may keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $1.0510-30 represents the resistance level.



    Resistance levels are: $1.0470, $1.0510-30, $1.0600

    Support levels are: $1.0340-50, $0300, $0200


    The main scenario for promoting the pair  — support breakout of $1.0340-50 (January 3’ 2017 low, May 13 low) and there may be a decline to the psychological level of $0300


    An alternative scenario — the resistance breakout is $1.0470 (April 28 low) and there may be an increase to $1.0510-30 (May 12 high, MA (200) H1)

  • 14:24

    USD/CAD is testing MA 200 H1 support

    On Friday, the USD/CAD traded lower and closed the day in the red zone near the price of C$1.2910. Today it rose a little, rising to C$1.2980. On the hourly chart, USD/CAD is testing the strength of the support - the line of the moving average MA (200) H1 (С$1.2920). On the four-hour chart, the USD/CAD is still above the MA 200 H4 line. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and as long as the USD/CAD remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: С$1.3025, С$1.3075-00, С$1.3200

    • Support levels are at: С$1.2860, С$1.2815, С$1.2715

    Probably, the main scenario is continued growth towards the level of C$1.3025 (May 13 high).

    An alternative scenario is a consolidation below the MA 200 H1 line, followed by a fall to C$1.2715 (May 5 low).

  • 13:59

    AUD/USD remains below MA 200 H1

    On Friday, the AUD/USD traded higher and closed the day in positive territory around $0.6940. Today it fell down to $0.6875. On the hourly chart, AUD/USD is still trading below the moving average MA (200) H1 ($0.7015). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the AUD/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $0.6960, $0.7055, $0.7135

    • Support levels are at: $0.6830, $0.6775, $0.6700

    Probably, the main scenario is a possible decline to $0.6830 (May 12 low).

    An alternative scenario is a consolidation above the MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $0.7265 (May 5 high).

  • 13:46

    Gold trades near February 2022 lows

    On Friday, the XAU/USD traded lower and closed the day in the red around $1811. Today, gold was trading in a tight range of $1808-17, staying close to the February 2022 lows. On the hourly chart, XAU/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 ($1858) moving average line. The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the XAU/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be  necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1828, $1848, $1858

    • Support levels are at: $1800, $1788-92, $1780

    Probably, the main scenario is to move forward is a continuation of the downward movement towards $1800 (May 13 low).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation above MA 200 H1 followed by growth to $1909 (May 5 high).

  • 13:17

    Oil still testing MA 200 H1 resistance

    On Friday, Brent crude traded higher and closed the day in positive territory around $111.50. Oil fell today, dropping to $109.50. On the hourly chart, Brent is still testing the strength of the resistance - the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($108.35). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and as long as Brent remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points for selling at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $113.75-20, $115.50, $117.50

    • Support levels are at: $107.90, $106.60, $104.50-80

    Probably, the main scenario is a possible subsequent decline to $107.90 (May 13 low).

    The alternative scenario is consolidation above the MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $114.20 (May 5 high).

  • 13:02

    USD/JPY is still testing MA 200 H1 support

    On Friday, the USD/JPY traded higher and closed the day in positive territory near the price of Y129.30. Today it fell down to Y128.70. On the hourly chart, USD/JPY is still testing the strength of the support - the line of the moving average MA (200) H1 (Y129.85). On the four-hour chart, the USD/JPY is still above the MA 200 H4 line. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and as long as the USD/JPY remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: Y130.05, Y130.80-90, Y131.30

    • Support levels are at: Y128.35, Y127.55, Y126.95

    Probably, the main scenario is continued growth towards Y130.05 (May 12 high).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation below MA 200 H1, followed by decline to Y127.55 (May 12 low).

  • 12:42

    USD/CHF is trading near May 2019 highs

    On Friday, the USD/CHF traded in different directions in the range of Chf0.9990-Chf1.0045 and closed the day without significant changes. Today it was also trading in a narrow range of Chf1.0015-30, staying close to the May 2019 highs. On the hourly chart, USD/CHF is still trading above the moving average MA (200) H1 (Chf0.9905). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and while the USD/CHF remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: Chf1.0050, Chf1.1100, Chf1.1200

    • Support levels are at: Chf0.9975, Chf0.9930, Chf0.9870

    Probably, the main scenario is a likely continuation of growth towards Chf1.0050 (May 12 high).

    An alternative scenario is consolidation below MA 200 H1, followed by a decline to Chf0.9670 (Apr 29 low).

  • 12:21

    The GBP/USD is trading near the May 2020 lows

    On Friday, the GBP/USD traded slightly higher and closed the day in positive territory around $1.2260. Today, it was trading in a narrow range of $1.2235-95, staying close to the May 2020 lows. On the hourly chart, GBP/USD is still trading below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($1.2340). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the GBP/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1.2295, $1.2400-05, $1.2580

    • Support levels are at: $1.2155, $1.2100, $1.2000

    Probably, the main scenario is a continued decline towards $1.2155 (May 13 low).

    An alternative scenario is fixing above the MA 200 H1 level, followed by a rise to $1.2770 (Apr 26 high).

  • 12:03

    The EUR/USD is trading near the lows of January 2017

    On Friday, the EUR/USD traded slightly higher and closed the day in positive territory around $1.0410. Today, it was trading in a narrow range of $1.0390-15, staying close to the lows of January 2017. On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is still trading below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($1.0510). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the EUR/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1.0440, $1.0530, $1.0575

    • Support levels are at: $1.0350, $1.0300, $1.0200

    Probably, the main scenario is continued decline towards $1.0350 (May 13 low).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation above MA 200 H1, followed by a rise to $1.0740 (Apr 26 high).

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