Technical analysis

Technical analysis

12 May 2022
  • 19:57

    NZD/USD dropped to a new 2-year low

    Today, the NZD/USD pair is trading with a decline from $0.6300 to $0.6235, having reached a new 2-year low. The pair broke through the support of $0.6275, which became the nearest resistance. On the hourly chart, NZD/USD dropped below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($0.6390) and on the four-hour chart it remained below MA (200) H4 ($0.6685). Technically speaking, the support of $0.6150-65 may keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $0.6380-90 represents the resistance level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is below the level of 30, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    Resistance levels are: $0.6275, $0.6380-90, $0.6460

    Support levels are: $0.6150-65, $0.6080, $0.6030


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — continuation of the downward movement to $0.6150-65 (May 27-29’ 2020 lows)

    An alternative scenario — the resistance breakout is $0.6275 (May 10 low) and there may be an increase to $0.6380-90 (May 11 high, MA (200) H1)


  • 19:40

    USD/JPY dropped to a 2-week low

     

    Today, the USD/JPY pair dropped sharply from Y130.10 to Y128.40, reaching a 2-week low. Recall that on Monday, the pair reached a new 20-year high (Y131.35). On the hourly chart, USD/JPY has fallen below the moving average line of MA (200) H1 (Y130.10), but on the four-hour chart it remains above MA (200) H4 (Y126.95). Technically speaking, the support of Y128.40 can keep prices down further. The upper bound of Y131.35 represents the resistance level.

     

    Resistance levels are:  Y130.10, Y130.80, Y131.35

    Support levels are:  Y128.40, Y126.95, Y125.80


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — correction and there may be an increase in the pair to Y130.10 (session maximum, MA (200) H1)


    An alternative scenario — breakout of the session minimum of Y128.40 (April 28 low) and there may be a decline to Y126.95 (April 27 low)

  • 19:25

    USD/CHF is trading near the highs of December 2019

    Today, the USD/CHF pair is trading in the range of Chf0.9930-70 - near the highs of December 2019. On the hourly chart, the pair remains above the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Chf0.9855) and on the four-hour chart - above MA (200) H4 (Chf0.9535). Technically speaking, the resistance of Chf0.9975 can keep prices from rising further. The lower bound of Chf0.9830 represents the support level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is above the level of 70, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    Resistance levels are: Chf0.9975, Chf1.0010-1.0025, Chf1.0120


    Support levels are: Chf0.9855-70, Chf0.9830, Chf0.9710


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — resistance breakout is Chf0.9975 (May 10 high) and there may be an increase to Chf1.0010-1.0025 (November 28 and December 2’ 2019 highs)

    An alternative scenario — support breakthrough of Chf0.9855-70 (May 11 low, MA (200) H1) and there may be a decline to Chf0.9830 (May 6 low)

  • 19:16

    GBP/USD dropped to a 2-year low

    Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading mainly with a decline from $1.2255 to $1.2160, reaching a 2-year low. The pair broke through the support of $1.2260, which became the nearest resistance. On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has consolidated below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($1.2405) and on the four-hour chart remains below MA (200) H4 ($1.2820). Technically speaking, the support of $1.2160 can keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $1.2405 represents the resistance level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is below the level of 30, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    ⦁ Resistance levels are: $1.2260, $1.2405, $1.2640

    ⦁ Support levels are: $1.2160, $1.2080, $1.1975


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — support breakthrough of $1.2160 (May 22-25’ 2020 low, session minimum) and there may be a decline to $1.2080 (May 18’ 2020 low)


    An alternative scenario — the resistance breakout is $1.2260 (May 9 low) and there may be an increase to $1.2405 (May 9 and 11 high, MA (200) H1)

  • 18:57

    EUR/USD fell to the lows of January 2017

    Today, the EUR/USD pair has sharply declined from $1.0530 to $1.0420, reaching the lows of January 2017. The pair broke through the support of $1.0470, which became the nearest resistance. On the hourly chart, EUR/USD dropped below the moving average line of MA (200) H1 ($1.0540) and on the four-hour chart - significantly below MA (200) H4 ($1.0770). In this situation, a scenario of further decline of the pair is likely and finding a sell position may be a wise decision for those who want to take advantage of a stronger US dollar.


    Resistance levels are: $1.0470, $1.0530-40, $1.0600

    Support levels are: $1.0420, $0340, $0300


    The main scenario for promoting the pair  — breakout of the session low of $1.0420 and there may be a decline to $0340 (January 3’ 2017 low)


    An alternative scenario — the resistance breakout is $1.0470 (April 28 low) and there may be an increase to $1.0530-40 (session maximum, MA (200) H1)

  • 14:24

    USD/CAD remains above MA 200 H1

    Yesterday the USD/CAD traded down and closed the day in the red zone near the price of C$1.2990. Today it was trading in a narrow range of C$1.2975-15, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, USD/CAD is still trading above the MA (200) H1 moving average line (С$1.2890). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and as long as the USD/CAD remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: С$1.3040-50, С$1.3100, С$1.3200

    • Support levels are at: С$1.2910-20, С$1.2860, С$1.2815

    Probably, the main scenario is continued growth towards the level of C$1.3040 (May 11 high).

    An alternative scenario is a consolidation below the MA 200 H1 line, followed by a fall to C$1.2715 (May 5 low).

  • 14:05

    AUD/USD continues yesterday's decline

    Yesterday the AUD/USD traded down and closed the day in the red zone near the price of $0.6940. Today it also fell a little, dropping to $0.6905. On the hourly chart, AUD/USD is still trading below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($0.7055). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the AUD/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $0.7055, $0.7135, $0.7225

    • Support levels are at: $0.6905, $0.6830, $0.6775

    Probably, the main scenario is a possible decline to $0.6905 (session low).

    An alternative scenario is a consolidation above the MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $0.7265 (May 5 high).

  • 13:57

    Gold remains below MA 200 H1

    Yesterday, the XAU/USD was trading higher and closed the day in positive territory near the price of $1852. Gold was trading in a tight range of $1851-58 today, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, XAU/USD is still trading below the moving average MA (200) H1 ($1871). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the XAU/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1865-71, $1892, $1909

    • Support levels are at: $1832-34, $1825, $1815-17

    Probably, the main scenario is the continuation of the downward movement to $1834 (the low of the American session on May 11).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation above MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $1919 (Apr 29 high).

  • 13:21

    Oil remains below MA 200 H1

    Yesterday, Brent crude traded higher and closed the day in positive territory around $107.10. Today, oil fell slightly, dropping to $106.15. On the hourly chart, Brent is still trading below the moving average MA (200) H1 ($108.10). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and as long as Brent remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points for selling at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $108.40, $111.20, $113.75-20

    • Support levels are at: $104.50, $101.50, $99.65

    Probably, the main scenario is a possible subsequent decline to $104.50 (low of the American session on May 11).

    The alternative scenario is consolidation above the MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $114.20 (May 5 high).

  • 13:12

    USD/JPY is still testing MA 200 H1 support

    Yesterday the USD/JPY traded down and closed the day in the red zone near the price of Y129.95. Today it fell a little, dropping to Y129.50. On the hourly chart, USD/JPY is still testing the strength of the support - the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Y130.15). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and as long as the USD/JPY remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: Y130.80-90, Y131.30, Y132.00

    • Support levels are at: Y129.45, Y128.60-75, Y127.80

    Probably, the main scenario is continued growth towards Y130.80 (May 11 high).

    An alternative scenario is fixing below MA 200 H1, followed by a decline to Y127.80 (low of the American session on Apr 27).

  • 12:48

    USD/CHF is still trading near the December 2019 highs

    Yesterday the USD/CHF traded lower and closed the day in the red zone near the price of Chf0.9940. Today it was trading in a narrow range of Chf0.9935-55, staying near the highs of December 2019. On the hourly chart, USD/CHF is still trading above the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Chf0.9845). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and as long as the USD/CHF remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: Chf0.9975, Chf1.0005-20, Chf1.1100

    • Support levels are at: Chf0.9870, Chf0.9825, Chf0.9755

    Probably, the main scenario is a likely continuation of growth towards Chf0.9975 (May 10 high).

    An alternative scenario is consolidation below MA 200 H1, followed by a decline to Chf0.9670 (Apr 29 low).

  • 12:20

    The GBP/USD continued yesterday's decline

    Yesterday the GBP/USD traded lower and closed the day in the red zone near the price of $1.2245. Today it also fell a little, dropping to $1.2210. On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 moving average line ($1.2415). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the GBP/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1.2285, $1.2400-05, $1.2580

    • Support levels are at: $1.2200-10, $1.2100, $1.2000

    Probably, the main scenario is the continued decline to the level of $1.2210 (session low).

    An alternative scenario is fixing above the MA 200 H1 level, followed by a rise to $1.2770 (Apr 26 high).

  • 11:56

    EUR/USD remains below MA 200 H1

    Yesterday the EUR/USD traded lower and closed the day in the red zone near the price of $1.0515. Today it was trading in a narrow range of $1.0510-30, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 moving average line ($1.0540). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the EUR/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1.0590-00, $1.0640-55, $1.0695

    • Support levels are at: $1.0470-85, $1.0400, $1.0300

    Probably, the main scenario is continued decline towards $1.0485 (May 6 low).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation above MA 200 H1, followed by a rise to $1.0740 (Apr 26 high).

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