Technical analysis

Technical analysis

04 May 2022
  • 19:58

    USD/JPY remains near a 20-year high

    Today, the USD/JPY pair is trading in the range of Y129.90-130.20, after reaching a new 20-year high last week (Y131.25). On the hourly chart, the pair rose above the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Y129.20), and on the four-hour chart it remains above MA (200) H4 (Y125.20). Technically speaking, the resistance of Y131.25 can keep prices from further growth. The lower bound of 126.95 represents the support level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is above the level of 70, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.

     

    Resistance levels are: Y130.50, Y131.25, Y132.00

    Support levels are:  Y129.20-30, Y128.30, Y126.95


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — the resistance breakthrough is Y130.50 (May 2 high) and there may be an increase to Y131.25 (April 28 high)

    An alternative scenario — support breakout is Y129.20-30 (April 29 low, MA (200) H1) and there may be a decline to Y128.30 (April 28 low)

  • 19:58

    NZD/USD is trading near the lows of the beginning of July 2020

    Today, the NZD/USD pair is trading in the range of $0.6420-65 - near the lows of the beginning of July 2020. On the hourly chart, the pair fell below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($0.6530) and on the four-hour chart - below MA (200) H4 ($0.6785). Technically speaking, the support level of $0.6410 can keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $0.6545 represents the resistance level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is below the level of 30, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    Resistance levels are: $0.6475, $0.6530-45, $0.6590

    Support levels are: $0.6410, $0.6385, $0.6260


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion —  support breakout of $0.6410 (May 2-3 low) and may be a decline to $0.6385 (June 30’ 2020 low)

    An alternative scenario — resistance breakout of $0.6475 (May 2-3 high) and then, maybe, an increase to $0.6530-45 (April 28-29 high, MA (200) H1)

  • 19:29

    USD/CHF has reached a new 2-year high


    Today, the USD/CHF pair is trading in the range of Chf0.9780-0.9810 - having reached a new 2-year high. On the hourly chart, the pair rose above the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Chf0.9680) and on the four-hour chart - above MA (200) H4 (Chf0.9430). Technically speaking, the resistance of Chf0.9845 can keep prices from rising further. The lower bound of Chf0.9670-80 represents the support level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is above the level of 70, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    Resistance levels are: Chf0.9820, Chf0.9845, Chf0.9900


    Support levels are: Chf0.9710-20, Chf0.9670-80, Chf0.9615



    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — breakout of the session maximum of Chf0.9815 and there may be an increase to Chf0.9845 (May 24’ 2020 high)

    An alternative scenario — support breakout is Chf0.9710-20 (May 2-3 lows) and there may be a decline to Chf0.9670-80 (April 28-29 lows, MA (200) H1)

  • 19:15

    GBP/USD remains near the lows of July 2020

    Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading in the range of $1.2465-1.2525 after falling last week to the lowest value since July 2020 ($1.2410). On the hourly chart, the pair has fixed below the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($1.2615) and on the four-hour chart - below MA (200) H4 ($1.2970). Technically speaking, the support of $1.2410 can keep prices from further decline. The upper limit of $1.2770 represents the resistance level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) has fallen below the level of 30, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    ⦁ Resistance levels are: $1.2615, $1.2670, $1.2770

    ⦁ Support levels are: $1.2410, $1.2355, $1.2255


    The main scenario for the pair's promotion — the support breakthrough is $1.2410 (April 28 low) and there may be a decline to $1.2355 (July 1’ 2020 low)


    An alternative scenario — the resistance breakout is $1.2615 (April 29 high, MA (200) H1), and there may be an increase to $1.2670 (April 26 high)


  • 19:09

    EUR/USD is trading near the lows of January 2017

    Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of $1.0505-53 and remains near the lows of January 2017. On the hourly chart, the pair remains below the moving average line of MA (200) H1 ($1.0605) and on the four-hour chart - significantly below MA (200) H4 ($1.0855). Technically speaking, the support of $1.0450-70 can keep prices from falling. The upper limit of $1.0655 represents the resistance level.

    It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI (14) on D1) is below the level of 30, which signals a possible change in the direction of price movement.


    Resistance levels are:  $1.0595-1.0605, $1.0655, $1.0740

    Support levels are: $1.0450-70, $0340, $1.0300


    The main scenario for promoting the pair  — the support breakthrough is $1.0450-70 (January 11’ 2017 low, April 28 low) and there may be a decline to $1.0340 (January 3’ 2017 low)

    An alternative scenario — if the resistance of $1.0595-1.0605 (April 29 high, MA (200) H1) is broken, then the pair may rise to $1.0655 (April 27 high)

  • 14:23

    USD/CAD remains above MA 200 H1

    Yesterday the USD/CAD traded down and closed the day in the red zone near the price of C$1.2835. Today it was trading in a narrow range of C$1.2815-40, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, USD/CAD is still trading above the MA (200) H1 moving average line (С$1.2785). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and as long as the USD/CAD remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: С$1.2915, С$1.3000, С$1.3100

    • Support levels are at: С$1.2795, С$1.2720, С$1.2685

    Probably, the main scenario is continued growth towards the level of C$1.2915 (May 2 high).

    An alternative scenario is a consolidation below the MA 200 H1 line, followed by a fall to C$1.2460 (Apr 21 low).

  • 14:00

    AUD/USD remains below MA 200 H1

    Yesterday the AUD/USD traded higher and closed the day in positive territory around $0.7095. Today it was trading in a narrow range of $0.7090-15, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, AUD/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 moving average line ($0.7150). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the AUD/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $0.7180-90, $0.7230-45, $0.7310

    • Support levels are at: $0.7030, $0.6965-75, $0.6900

    Probably, the main scenario is a possible decline to $0.7030 (May 2 low).

    An alternative scenario is a consolidation above the MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $0.7455 (Apr 21 high).

  • 13:39

    Gold trades near 11-week low

    Yesterday the XAU/USD traded in different directions in the range of $1850-$1878 and closed the day without significant changes. Gold also traded in a tight range of $1861-69 today, staying near an 11-week low. On the hourly chart, XAU/USD is still trading below the MA line (200) H1 ($1900). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the XAU/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1878, $1900, $1919

    • Support levels are at: $1844-50, $1825, $1815-17

    Probably, the main scenario is to move forward is a continuation of the downward movement towards $1850 (May 3 low).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation above MA 200 H1 followed by a rise to $1998 (Apr 18 high).


  • 13:25

    Oil again tests the resistance of MA 200 H1

    Yesterday, Brent crude traded lower and closed the day in the red around $106.20. Today oil traded in a narrow range of $105.70-$106.40, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, Brent is testing resistance - the moving average line MA (200) H1 ($106.05). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the above, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and as long as Brent remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points for selling at the end of the correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $108.65, $110.35, $112.85

    • Support levels are at: $103.30-45, $101.35, $99.00-65

    Probably, the main scenario is a possible further decline to $103.45 (May 2 low).

    The alternative scenario is fixing above MA 200 H1 followed by growth to $112.85 (high of the American session on Apr 19).

  • 13:08

    USD/JPY remains above MA 200 H1

    Yesterday the USD/JPY traded in different directions in the range Y129.70-Y130.25 and closed the day without significant changes. Today it was also trading in a narrow Y130.05-20 range, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, USD/JPY is still trading above the moving average line MA (200) H1 (Y129.10). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the north direction in trading, and while the USD/JPY remains above MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to buy for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: Y130.50, Y131.25, Y132.00

    • Support levels are at: Y129.30, Y128.35, Y127.80

    Probably, the main scenario is continued growth towards Y130.50 (May 2 high).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation below MA 200 H1, followed by decline to Y126.25 (Apr 18 low).

  • 12:25

    GBP/USD remains below MA 200 H1

    Yesterday the GBP/USD traded in different directions in the range of $1.2470-$1.2565 and closed the day without significant changes. Today it was also trading in a narrow range of $1.2480-05, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 moving average line ($1.2630). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the GBP/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1.2595-15, $1.2695, $1.2770

    • Support levels are at: $1.2470, $1.2410, $1.2300

    Probably, the main scenario is continuation of the recent decline towards $1.2470 (May 3 low).

    The alternative scenario is fixing above the MA 200 H1 level, followed by a rise to $1.3090 (Apr 21 high).

  • 12:05

    The EUR/USD is still trading near the January 2017 lows

    Yesterday the EUR/USD traded in different directions in the range of $1.0490-$1.0580 and closed the day without significant changes. Today it was trading in a narrow range of $1.0515-35, staying close to yesterday's closing price. On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is still trading below the moving average MA (200) H1 ($1.0620). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and while the EUR/USD remains below MA 200 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction.

    • Resistances levels are at: $1.0580-90, $1.0655, $1.0695

    • Support levels are at: $1.0470, $1.0400, $1.0300

    Probably, the main scenario is continued decline towards $1.0470 (Apr 28 low).

    Alternative scenario is consolidation above MA 200 H1, followed by a rise to $1.0935 (Apr 21 high).


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