Market news

Canada: Energy trade surplus at an all-time high in March – NFB

US: Supply issues, inflation and a pullback in demand weighed on ISM services – Wells Fargo

GBP/USD finds support again near 1.2465 ahead of Fed’s decision

USD/CAD is steady at around 1.2830s in choppy trading ahead of the Fed

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD subdued in $1860s pre-Fed, bears eye a break below $1850 on a hawkish surprise

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD dips under $22.50, eyes annual lows around $22.00 as Fed looms

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 1.302M, above forecasts (-1.167M) in April 29

US: ISM Services PMI falls to 57.1 in April vs. 58.5 expected

United States ISM Services PMI registered at 57.1, below expectations (58.5) in April

United States ISM Services Prices Paid came in at 84.6, above expectations (84.1) in April

United States ISM Services Employment Index below forecasts (51.2) in April: Actual (49.5)

United States ISM Services New Orders Index registered at 54.6, below expectations (64.3) in April

EUR/USD: Bulls push harder and target 1.0593 pre-FOMC

BoE Preview: Forecasts from 11 major banks, another dovish hike on the cards

US: S&P Global Services PMI rises to 55.6 versus 54.7 flash estimate

United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 56, above forecasts (55.1) in April

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.6, above expectations (54.7) in April

WTI rallies into $106.00s, eyes recent highs near $110 with focus on EU’s proposed embargo on Russian oil

When is the US ISM Services PMI and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears must beware of the buy-everything-rally – TDS

GBP/USD refreshes daily high amid post-ADP USD downtick, focus remains on FOMC

Indian rupee to find comfort as off-cycle hike by the RBI is just the beginning – TDS

GBP/USD set to drop below the 1.24 level this week – Scotiabank

Singapore Purchasing Managers Index above forecasts (50.2) in April: Actual (50.3)

No EU deal on a Russia oil ban has been reached on Wednesday, EU envoys to meet again on Thursday - Reuters

USD/JPY remains on the defensive near 130.00 post-US ADP report, FOMC decision awaited

Canada: International trade surplus falls to C$2.49B in March versus C$3.9B expected

United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-109.8B, below expectations ($-107B) in March

US: Goods and Services Trade deficit jumps to $109.8B in March versus $107B expected

Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $2.49B, below expectations ($3.8B) in March

Canada Exports above forecasts ($61.76B) in March: Actual ($63.63B)

Canada Imports above expectations ($58.11B) in March: Actual ($61.14B)

United States Goods Trade Balance fell from previous $-125.3B to $-128.1B in March

Hungary's Foreign Minister: Cannot support EU's proposed ban on Russian oil imports

United States ADP Employment Change below expectations (395K) in April: Actual (247K)

US: Private sector employment rises by 247K in April vs. 395K expected

EU proposes to ban all shipping, financing and insurance services for transport of Russia oil within one month

AUD/USD inches back closer to post-RBA swing high ahead of US macro data/FOMC

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD flatlines near $1870 pre-Fed and US data dump, bears eye 200DMA in $1830s

EUR/USD Price Analysis: The door to a deeper pullback remains open

Indonesia: Total Investment expanded nearly 30% YoY in Q1 – UOB

Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a above expectations (43.8) in April: Actual (44.3)

Mexico Consumer Confidence increased to 44.3 in April from previous 43.6

United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to 2.5% in April 29 from previous -8.3%

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: A break above 104.00 hinges on the Fed

Kremlin: Sanctions are a double-edged sword, costs for Europeans will increase a lot

BoJ: No changes to the ultra-accommodative stance – UOB

Germany's Scholz: Discussed law speeding up development of LNG

NZD/USD sticks to modest recovery gains, lacks follow-through ahead of US data/FOMC

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Looks cautious around 137.00 ahead of FOMC

SNB's Maechler: Strong CHF to help us on inflation

Germany 10-y Bond Auction up to 0.93% from previous 0.83%

USD/CHF retakes 0.9800 mark for the first time since March 2020, ahead of US data/FOMC

US: GDP is now seen expanding 3.0% in 2022 – UOB

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.4%) in March: Actual (0.8%)

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.1%) in March

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to rebound on a cautious Fed – Commerzbank

USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee drops towards 76.00 after RBI’s surprise 40 bps rate hike

EUR/USD could stage a rebound on cautious tone from the Fed

GBP/USD rebounds from weekly low, upside potential seems limited ahead of FOMC

Fed could raise rates to 2.00%-2.25% by year end – UOB

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY): 5.4% (March) vs previous 6%

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM): £8.3B (March) vs £6.5B

United Kingdom Consumer Credit above forecasts (£1.3B) in March: Actual (£1.303B)

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.4%) in March

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 70.691K, below expectations (70.75K) in March

USD/CAD flirts with weekly low amid rising oil prices, eyes 1.2800 ahead of US data/FOMC

Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation above forecasts (1.45%) in April: Actual (1.62%)

European Monetary Union S&P Global Composite PMI meets expectations (55.8) in April

European Monetary Union S&P Global Services PMI in line with expectations (57.7) in April

Germany S&P Global/BME Services PMI below expectations (57.9) in April: Actual (57.6)

Germany S&P Global/BME Composite PMI came in at 54.3 below forecasts (54.5) in April

France S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (58.8) in April: Actual (58.9)

France S&P Global Composite PMI above expectations (57.5) in April: Actual (57.6)

Forex Today: Markets gear up for first 50 bps Fed rate hike since 2000

Italy S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (54.5) in April: Actual (55.7)

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to remain resilient this year, 2022 forecast is $1,910 – Citibank

GBP/JPY: A corrective decline is upon us – DBS Bank

Norges Bank Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, on hold this time, another rate hike in June

EU's von der Leyen: We will phase out Russian supply of crude oil and refined products

Spain S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (55.9) in April: Actual (57.1)

Limited downside risks for the dollar as the Fed prepares to hike – ING

EUR/USD: Rising bets for a challenge of the 2022 low at 1.0470

GBP/USD set to suffer a sustained break under the 1.25 level – ING

AUD/USD: China’s clouded outlook to keep aussie capped to the 0.72-0.73 area – ING

Spain Unemployment Change: -86.26K (April) vs previous -2.921K

USD/CAD: Loonie unlikely to benefit from expectations of accelerated BoC rate hikes – Commerzbank

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Sellers lurk around 137.00

EUR/NOK: Norges Bank rate decision to be largely neutral for the krone – Commerzbank

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD seems vulnerable near multi-month low, FOMC awaited

Three factors suggest a prudent approach towards AUD, NZD and CAD – Credit Suisse

USD/CNH faces the next barrier at 6.7200 – UOB

US Dollar Index looks anxious around 103.50 on Fed’s day

USD to benefit from the Fed rate decision short-term – Commerzbank

EUR/SEK: Rallies towards 10.60 to come into play towards the end of Q2 – Credit Suisse

AUD/USD bulls eye 0.7165 hurdle as greenback stays pressured amid pre-Fed trading lull

EUR/NOK: 9.80 still seen as the appropriate target – Credit Suisse

Clear hawkish outcome from the BoE to change the negativity surrounding the pound – Credit Suisse

USD/JPY could now face some consolidation – UOB

Natural Gas Futures: Rally remains unabated

NZD/USD skids below 0.6430 on flat NZ Unemployment Rate, Fed’s policy eyed

AUD/USD faces solid support around 0.6995 – UOB

Palladium Price Analysis: XPD/USD struggles to extend 50-SMA breakout around $2,250

Germany Trade Balance s.a. below expectations (€9.8B) in March: Actual (€3.2B)

Germany Imports (MoM) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (1%) in March

Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 44.1 to 48.2 in April

Germany Exports (MoM) came in at -3.3%, below expectations (-2%) in March

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to eye 200-DMA at $1,835 on aggressive Fed policy outlook

FX option expiries for May 4 NY cut

Crude Oil Futures: A deeper pullback looks unlikely

GBP/USD: Downside appears to be losing traction – UOB

GBP/USD drops towards 1.2450 with eyes on Fed, BOE and NI elections

Gold Futures: Scope for further recovery

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Overlapping EMAs signal a consolidation ahead

EUR/USD risks a drop below 1.0470 – UOB

Platinum Price Analysis: XPT/USD teases falling wedge breakout ahead of Fed, $975 in focus

USD/JPY stuck in a 130.10-130.20 range as DXY steadies, Fed’s policy in the limelight

USD/INR Price News: Rupee edges higher past 76.50 on Indian market inflow, Fed eyed

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Exhaustion on the downside advocates an upside move to near 0.7200

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers inside the key $1,855-80 zone as bears await Fed’s showdown

EUR/USD quiets down around 1.0520 ahead of Fed’s policy announcement

Fed: 50 bps rate hike and balance sheet reduction on the table – Scotiabank

AUD/JPY prints three-day uptrend near 92.50 on firmer Aussie data, cautious optimism

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Tuesday’s “Hanging man”, overbought RSI signals pullback towards 0.9750

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bears have moved in to test bullish commitments at critical daily support

Australia Investment Lending for Homes rose from previous -1.8% to 2.9% in March

Australia Home Loans came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (-1%) in March

AUD/USD pierces 0.7100 on upbeat Australia Retail Sales, Fed in focus

Aussie Retail Sales suprises to the upside and supports AUD/USD

Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 1.6%, above expectations (0.6%) in March

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sees a reversal to near $1,860 amid anxiety over Fed’s rate hike

S&P 500 Futures portray pre-Fed market consolidation, Japan’s holiday chains yields

GBP/USD bulls holding the fort into the Fed

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price below forecasts (3.7%) in April: Actual (1.9%)

EUR/USD justifies indecision at options market ahead of Fed

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls step in at a critical area of weekly support

WTI juggles in a 103.30-103.60 range as China’s independent refineries close Russian oil deals

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Multiple failures to cross key DMAs highlight 159.60-55 for bears

Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, May 3, 2022

AUD/USD stays defensive around 0.7100 ahead of Aussie Retail Sales, Fed meeting

USD/JPY sustains above 130.00 but is still inside the woods, the spotlight is on Fed

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD dribbles around 78.6% Fibo as bears eye four-month-old support

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Choppiness in a 90-pips range signals volatility expansion ahead

Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 55.9 in April from previous 56.2

Australia S&P Global Composite PMI: 55.1 (April) vs previous 56.2

Australia S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (56.6) in April: Actual (56.1)

US Inflation expectations rebound from three-week low ahead of FOMC

US 10-year Yield Price Analysis: Upward pressured but struggling at the 3.00% threshold

United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2.7%) in March

RBNZ Gov Orr: Cannot rule out a global recession in coming months

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Dribbles around 1.2500 as bears hold reins

Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index fell from previous 56.5 to 55.9 in April

AUD/NZD keeps RBA-led gains on mixed NZ employment data, Aussie Retail Sales eyed

NZD/USD remains stuck around 0.6440 on a steady NZ Unemployment Rate at 3.2%

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears reclaimed the 100-DMA and targets the 200-DMA at around $1835

New Zealand Employment Report leaves NZD sidelined ahead of Fed

New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) in line with expectations (3.1%) in 1Q

New Zealand Employment Change meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q

New Zealand Participation Rate came in at 70.9%, below expectations (71.1%) in 1Q

New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q

New Zealand Unemployment Rate meets expectations (3.2%) in 1Q

USD/CAD remains pressured towards 1.2800 with eyes on Fed

US Dollar Index oscillates around 103.50 as investors await Fed’s rate hike

When is the New Zealand Q1 employment data and how could it affect NZD/USD?

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls regain control but will face a wall of resistance around 93.00

AUD/USD bulls wait for the outcome of the Fed

USD/CHF sees an establishment above 0.9800 on firmer DXY, Fed’s policy eyed

RBNZ: The New Zealand financial system remains well placed to support the economy.

South Korea FX Reserves below forecasts (456.53B) in April: Actual (449.3B)

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears eye a 61.8% golden ratio

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -3.479M in April 29 from previous 4.784M

Forex Today: Dollar bulls refuse to give up

EUR/USD consolidates in choppy conditions ahead of the Fed

NZDUSD steady above 0.6400 ahead of NZ employment data, Fed’s decision

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD traders are sidelined ahead of the Fed

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Trapped around 136.50-138.00, as a head-and-shoulders looms and targets 130.00

GBP/USD braces to 1.2500 ahead of crucial Fed-BoE policy meetings

BoC's Rogers: We need higher rates to moderate demand

ECB may need to hike rates in July, board member Schnabel says

AUD/USD edges higher though is back below 0.7100 despite a hawkish RBA

USD/CNY: Depreciation is unavoidable amid the contrast between the Fed and the PBoC – BBVA

USD/MXN Price Analysis: In the 20.30/50 range with risks tilted to the upside