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03.11.2021 18:30

When is the US ADP jobs report and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US ADP jobs report overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment, scheduled at 12:15 GMT. According to the consensus estimates, the US private-sector employers added 400K jobs in October, down from 568K in the previous month. The report will influence expectations from Friday's official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, though is likely to be overshadowed by the key central bank event risk.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

The Fed is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision later during the US session and is widely expected to begin tapering its bond purchases. Given that the Fed's tapering move is fully priced in, investors will look for clues over the timing when the US central bank will hike interest rates. This, in turn, suggests that the market would react little to the data, albeit any significant divergence from the expected reading might still provide some impetus.

Meanwhile, Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair: “The near-term technical outlook shows that the pair remains in a consolidation phase with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart moving sideways around 50. However, EUR/USD stays below the 20, 50, 100 and 200-period SMAs on the same chart, suggesting that buyers are showing no interest in the euro for the time being.”

Eren also outlined important technical levels to trade the major: “On the upside, 1.1600 (psychological level, 100-period SMA) now aligns as the first line of resistance ahead of the 1.1620/30 area (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of September downtrend, 200-period SMA) and 1.1670 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).1.1580 (static level) is acting as interim support before the pair can target 1.1550 (static level) and 1.1525 (2021 low).”

Key Notes

  •  US ADP Employment Change October Preview: The labor market plays second fiddle

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: Euro's failure to hold above 1.1600 a warning sign before Fed?

  •  EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears seeking a break below 1.15 the figure

About the US ADP jobs report

The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.


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