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GBP/USD to reach 1.40 as too dovish rates pricing tilt risk to the upside – Credit Suisse
FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse believe that the EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pairs can reach 0.87/88 and 1.40, respectively.
“Our economists anticipate the Bank of England will increase its assets purchases by a further GBP150 B at its 4 February meeting, continuing a policy of fully financing gilt issuance. If the UK is successful in muting the current covid spike and meeting its aggressive vaccination targets, it could yet emerge among the quickest countries to reach herd immunity, perhaps as soon as by the summer. If so, the prospects for H2 2021 would look very strong, especially as house prices are already buoyant and could remain so with the right tax policy at the 3 March budget.”
“Sterling could yet end up making a push for the 0.87-0.88 EUR/GBP target range we had looked for after a Brexit trade deal with the EU, but with momentum picking up later this quarter. That would also allow for GBP/USD to push to test 1.40.”
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Market focus
- U.S. retail sales unexpectedly decline in December
- U.S. consumer sentiment index decreases more than anticipated in early January
- Key events for next week: China GDP, eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index, UK, Canada and New Zealand CPI, Bank of Canada, ECB and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions, Australian unemployment rate, Eurozone, UK and US PMIs
- U.S. industrial production grows much more than forecast in December
Forex is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week (except national holidays), and it can be broken up to the following four regional markets: Australia and Oceania, Asia, Europe, and America. A Forex trading session opens at 23:00 GMT on Sunday in Japan and closes at 22:00 GMT on Friday in the USA.
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Pacific | Wellington | 19:00 | 04:00 | 22:00 | 07:00 | 22:00 | 07:00 |
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Pacific | Sydney | 21:00 | 06:00 | 00:00 | 09:00 | 00:00 | 09:00 |
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Asian | Tokyo | 23:00 | 08:00 | 02:00 | 11:00 | 02:00 | 11:00 |
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Asian | Hong Kong, Singapore | 00:00 | 09:00 | 03:00 | 12:00 | 03:00 | 12:00 |
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European | 06:00 | 15:00 | 09:00 | 18:00 | 9:00 | 18:00 | |
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European | London | 07:00 | 16:00 | 10:00 | 19:00 | 10:00 | 19:00 |
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American | New York | 12:00 | 21:00 | 15:00 | 00:00 | 15:00 | 00:00 |
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American | Chicago | 13:00 | 22:00 | 16:00 | 01:00 | 16:00 | 01:00 |