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19.11.2019 23:09

U.S. Dollar Index loses momentum near 97.90

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), has failed to extend the daily recovery further north of the 97.90-region.

The index could not sustain the earlier advance to the vicinity of 97.90 and sellers turned up in tandem with fresh concerns on the US-China trade war front – particularly from Chinese officials - amidst increasing skepticism on a positive outcome of the negotiations surrounding the ‘Phase One’ partial deal.

Adding downside pressure to the buck, the US housing sector printed mixed results in October, as Housing Starts expanded below consensus by 1.314M units (or 3.8%) and Building Permits surpassed estimates expanding by 1.461M units (or 5.0%).

Later in the week, the FOMC minutes should grab all the attention on Wednesday seconded by the Philly Fed manufacturing gauge on Thursday and the final November Consumer Sentiment print on Friday.

The index seems to have charted a short-term top in the 98.50-region for the time being. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade dispute are expected to remain as the exclusive driver when comes to price action in the global markets. Other than that, investors stay focused on the recent US results in key fundamentals amidst declining yields and the steepening of the 2y-10y yield curve seen as of late. Moving to US politics, markets keep ignoring Trump’s impeachment developments, while the impact on the FX space remains muted. On the broader view, however, the outlook on the greenback still looks constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe-haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’.

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.01% at 97.82 and faces immediate contention at 97.68 (monthly low Nov.18) seconded by 97.55 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1). On the flip side, a breakout of 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1).


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