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15.11.2019 16:19

Surging inflation won't stop monetary easing in China - analysts

China's strongest consumer inflation in nearly eight years won't deter the central bank from cutting a key interest rate next week, as slowing economic growth is a bigger concern for policymakers, traders and fund managers said.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will likely lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) next Wednesday, for the third time since it introduced the benchmark in August. The rate on the one-year fixing now stands at 4.2% while the five-year is at 4.85%.

Driven by soaring pork prices from the spread of African Swine Fever, China's consumer inflation rose past the government's target of around 3% in October to its fastest pace in almost eight years, posing a dilemma for the PBOC. China's economic growth slipped to its slowest pace in nearly three decades in the third quarter, pressured by slowing global demand and a bruising trade war with the US.

Eleven traders and bond fund managers, and about a dozen analysts and economists, told they expected the LPR to be lowered this month.

A majority of them believe the cut will be a marginal 5 basis points, in line with a 5 basis point cut in a medium-term lending facility (MLF) last week and in keeping with a gradual rather than aggressive loosening.


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