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15.11.2019 15:39

G10: Sentiment cyclicality suggests risk-off to accelerate thru Nov-29 followed by a reversal thru Dec 16 - Nomura

Nomura Research discusses a quant insight on the cyclicality of global equity sentiment to make its forecasts for cases of risk-off moves.

"We found that global equity sentiment tends to revert to the mean in roughly 22 trading days on average, while US equity sentiment tends to take around 20 trading days. For example, if global sentiment were to fall below the one-year average today (14 November), we would expect risk-off moves to accelerate through 29 November, followed by a reversal of this pessimism through 16 December (this assumes that the deterioration and recovery processes take 11 trading days each). If conditions were to change, these cyclicality forecast results would also change, of course. But the pattern of sentiment swings thus far shows that 2019 was typified by a repeated cycle of risk-on and risk-off phases lasting about a month," Nomura adds.


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